(Editor’s note: John Hall is a professional commodities analyst.)
The markets are trading sideways as we move toward Christmas. On Dec. 4, December corn closed at $4.33 and traded sideways the past week. March corn closed at $4.44. January beans also traded sideways for the week and closed at $11.21 while the March contract closed at $11.30. July wheat closed at $5.54 this same day. January crude oil was also trading sideways and closed at $59.38.
Can anything cause a market rally? Several analysts have focused on the Chinese trade deal. Last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that China is on track to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. beans and that purchase should be complete by the end of February. I regret to say that I believe the market has those sales priced in already.
Last week, Stone X lowered its estimate of Brazil’s past soybean crop to 177.2 million metric tones. Last year, they produced a record high 168.8 mmt. Eduardo Vanin with Brazil’s AgriInvest Commodities posted that their ending stocks will be larger than expected because they did not sell it all. Bearish beans worldwide.
I have shared the increase in grain production by several countries worldwide. Several countries are trying to produce their own food and have access to the same technologies available here. Market analyst Susan Stroud shared a char, as seen at the top-left on Page 8, that shows the change in global corn exports. The chart further shows the growth of our export competition.
Current corn exports appear positive at the moment, but I would not get too excited. We have a record crop to get rid of. At this moment I strongly urge you to keep your basis tables updated. Basis maybe your saving grace this season.
Are there more world markets out there? Last week farmdoc released a paper entitled: “Should US Growers Look to Africa as the Next Big Market? Selected Import Markets for Soybeans, Meal, and Oil.” I strongly urge your grain groups to look at all market options.
The current grain economy stinks. Farmdoc daily released a very sobering article, “The Current Grain Farm Financial Position in a Longer-Term Perspective,” which shows the trend of farm income based on actual records from the Illinois Farm Business center. The trend, seen at the right, is not pretty.
Now for the rest of the story. It is sad that Immigration and Customs Enforcement, ICE, agents are so busy this holiday season. I believe most Americans are very generous people and I assume many do not want to believe we have a problem. However, it appears people around the world have taken advantage of us and it is time to clean things up. Let me try and give a brief overview.
Congress passed the Refugee Act of 1980 which was signed by President Jimmy Carter that gives the president the authority to decide every year how many refugees America accepts and from which countries. George H.W.Bush used that authority in Fiscal Years 1992 and 1993 to open a small Priority-2 category for Somalis “of special humanitarian concern”. The number of Somalis coming to America quietly grew from there. Official refugees from Somalis total since 1990 is more than 180,000. Once a refugee has resettled, they can petition for their spouse and children to come. 
The largest concentrations of Somalis are: Minneapolis-St. Paul: 100,000 to 150,000; Columbia Ohio 70,000 to 100,000; Seattle, Wash. 40,000 to 60,000. San Diego, Nashville, Lewiston, Maine and several other cities now have five to six figure Somali populations. With these large concentrations, they have gained representation in local, state and federal governments.
Fraud and scams appear to be everywhere. Somali immigrant Abdifatah Yusuf that was convicted for stealing $7.2 million in a Medicaid fraud scheme by a jury was freed by a Minnesota judge. So Sad!
According to several sources, over 40% of households in Somalia rely on funding from abroad with an estimated $1.7 billion sent annually to the Somali people. This suggests that much of the assistance money has been sent overseas. Please understand that Somali is a third world country and the rule of law as we know it does not exist.
Sorry to burden you with this information. We are taught to look for the best in peopled and keep our mouth shut. It appears we have been taken advantage of. I am grateful we have an administration with the energy to correct these wrongs and get us back on track.
(Note: I research material from Allendale, DTN, USDA, University Land Grants and other credible sources in compiling this article. It is not merely my opinion, but rather a consensus of experts in the trade. Looking for a marketing coach or someone to discuss strategies with? Contact me at [email protected], or call 410-708-8781.)
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