The US Court of Appeals approved Ripple and the SEC’s Joint Stipulation for Dismissal in August, ending the lengthy legal battle. The approval meant that the SEC formally dropped its appeal against Judge Torres’ Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling.
In 2023, Judge Torres ruled that programmatic sales of XRP did not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test, classifying XRP as a non-security asset.
Amicus Curiae attorney John E. Deaton previously commented on the significance of the ruling for ETF issuers, stating:
“Fast forward to today: And XRP Spot ETFs are on their way to approval. Bottom line: As Judge Torres ruled, in part, due to XRP Holders intervening in the case as amici the Judge cited in her ruling: ‘XRP itself is not a security.’ Without that ruling, these Spot ETFs possibly never happen.”
Currently, 11 issuers have filed XRP ETF applications, ranging from pure spot to leveraged and futures. Of these, seven issuers have spot ETF filings pending an SEC decision. These include 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, CoinShares, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and WisdomTree. The final decision deadlines are between October 18 and 25, except for Franklin Templeton’s final deadline of November 14.
The approval and launch of the XRP-spot ETFs could be price catalysts, sending the token to new highs.
NovaDius Wealth Management President Nate Geraci warned against underestimating demand for XRP-spot ETFs, stating:
“People are severely underestimating investor demand for spot XRP & SOL ETFs. Just like they did w/ spot BTC & ETH ETFs.”
REX-Osprey XRP ETF Launch
On Thursday, September 18, the first US XRP ETF will launch, potentially providing traders a litmus test for an XRP-spot ETF market. The REX-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR) has a hybrid investment strategy, investing in XRP, XRP ETFs, and XRP derivatives.
The GLS and the REX-Osprey XRP ETF launch mark a new era and complete the full reversal of the Biden administration and Chair Gensler’s anti-crypto campaign.
Price Action & Technical Analysis: Bulls Eye $3.2 and then $3.66
XRP climbed 1.53% on Wednesday, September 17, building on the previous day’s 1.29% gain, closing at $3.0838. The token outperformed the broader market (0.73%) and closed above the psychological $3 level. Traders are watching the following technical levels:
- Support: $3, $2.8, and $2.5.
- Resistance: $3.2, $3.335, and the all-time high at $3.66.
In the near term, several key events could drive price action:
- REX-Osprey XRP ETF launch and demand.
- Spot ETFs: Approval or delays of XRP-spot ETFs. A BlackRock (BLK) iShares XRP Trust application could be a price catalyst.
- Blue-chip companies’ positions on XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
- Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s US-chartered bank license application, Market Structure Bill-related developments, and SWIFT news may further influence demand.
Catalysts & Scenarios
The outlook hinges on corporate, macroeconomic, and regulatory events. Potential price scenarios include:
Bearish Scenario
- REX-Osprey XRP ETF reports weak inflows.
- SEC declines XRP-spot ETF applications.
- Legislative setbacks, such as Democratic Party members challenging the Market Structure Bill, or roadblocks to crypto-friendly regulations.
- Blue-chip companies avoid XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
- OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
- SWIFT maintains global dominance, capping Ripple’s market access.
These bearish events could push XRP below $3, exposing $2.8 and potentially $2.5, the next key support level.
Bullish Scenario
- REX-Osprey XRP ETF reports strong demand.
- BlackRock files for an iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC approves XRP-spot ETFs.
- Blue-chip companies adopt XRP as treasury reserve assets, and more payment platforms integrate Ripple technology.
- Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the Senate passes the Market Structure Bill.
- SWIFT loses market share of global remittances to Ripple.
These events could send XRP toward $3.2. A sustained move through $3.2 could pave the way toward $3.335. A break above $3.335 may bring the record high of $3.66 (Binance) into play.
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